By Jason Webb
I have to admit that I didn’t pen Rain or Shine to make it through and will probably never hear the end of it from head coach Caloy Garcia.
It’s never easy to predict the future and there are many conversations that run in one’s head while forming an opinion on how games will turn out.
Trying to figure out how the Purefoods-Rain or Shine quarterfinal series will turn out, actually led me to a brief debate with myself.
WHY RAIN OR SHINE WILL WIN AGAINST PUREFOODS
The Elasto Painters are on a roll and have momentum.
WHY PUREFOODS WILL WIN AGAINST RAIN OR SHINE
In a 5-game series, momentum can only take you so far, experience will.
WHY RAIN OR SHINE WILL WIN AGAINST PUREFOODS
Rain or Shine may not have experience, but they are playing with renewed fire. The Elasto Painters are in the midst of their longest winning streak of the season.
WHY PUREFOODS WILL WIN AGAINST RAIN OR SHINE
That win streak is only two games, Purefoods is actually the hotter team winning four straight while limiting their opponents to the 80-point level.
WHY RAIN OR SHINE WILL WIN AGAINST PUREFOODS
That shouldn’t bother Rain or Shine since they actually average in the 80’s anyway. They’ve grabbed victories not by engaging in a shootout but by getting key baskets from different personnel.
WHY PUREFOODS WILL WIN AGAINST RAIN OR SHINE
Purefoods actually knows who among the players of Rain or Shine are willing to take the final shot. They will likely not allow these players to beat them. Plus, if you talk about players being able to hit key baskets, Purefoods has one of the best in James Yap.
WHY RAIN OR SHINE WILL WIN AGAINST PUREFOODS
Rain or Shine also knows there are only a handful of Purefoods players willing to take the big shot and the Elasto Painters take care of the basketball much better than Purefoods.
WHY PUREFOODS WILL WIN AGAINST RAIN OR SHINE
Rain or Shine does take care of the ball but Purefoods has the best rebounding differential in the league. Rain or Shine is the worst rebounding team, too.
WHY RAIN OR SHINE WILL WIN AGAINST PUREFOODS
Okay, Rain or Shine will have to find a way to get rebounds and stop the big men of Purefoods from getting too many of their own. But, which player from Purefoods can stop Sol Mercado? Sol has been on a roll.
WHY PUREFOODS WILL WIN AGAINST RAIN OR SHINE
Purefoods doesn’t look like it has one player than can stop Sol but they can give him different looks to confuse him. They can throw him quick guards, strong bulky guards or zone him up. Rain or Shine has one bona fide scorer but Purefoods has James, Kerby Raymundo and PJ Simon (if he’s healthy).
WHY RAIN OR SHINE WILL WIN AGAINST PUREFOODS
There are many guys that are perfect fit to defend those players. They just have to keep out of foul trouble because the team does not have much depth.
WHY PUREFOODS WILL WIN AGAINST RAIN OR SHINE
Bench depth! Aha! That is the one thing that Purefoods has a huge advantage of. That makes it bench depth and experience on the side of the Giants
WHY RAIN OR SHINE WILL WIN AGAINST PUREFOODS
Sure, Purefoods has many advantages in their favor but this is a team that wants to continue to surprise. And because of that…you never know…
Meanwhile, the Barangay Ginebra and Talk ‘N Text duel will surely be the main attraction for the fans. The crowd favorite against the defending champions.
The Kings have been a team that has dealt with injuries all year but the break has given them a chance to let their wounds heal. The team has yet to have a streak of injury-free games this year but they’re hoping that the injury bug has finally flown away.
Mark Caguioa has started to feel better and only needs to fine-tune his timing to get back into the flow of things. Jayjay Helterbrand may not be 100%, yet, but a less than 100% Helterbrand is actually better than most guards in the league. With those two guys back, we should be in for a healthy dose of competition among the guards.
The Tropang Texters, on the other hand, have not made as much noise as you would expect from a defending champion. But even with what seemed like an uneasy elimination campaign, they have managed to get into the quarterfinals with the help of their offense anchored on the abilities of their guards.
I just couldn’t get a simple answer to who would be the likely winner so I continued to debate with myself.
WHY BARANGAY GINEBRA WILL WIN AGAINST TALK ‘N TEXT
Barangay Ginebra plays better defense than Talk ‘N Text.
WHY TALK ‘N TEXT WILL WIN AGAINST BARANGAY GINEBRA
The offense of Talk ‘N Text is so efficient it actually can get away with not having to play sound defense.
WHY BARANGAY GINEBRA WILL WIN AGAINST TALK ‘N TEXT
If the game becomes a shootout, the Barangay Ginebra crowd will have more opportunities to get involved.
WHY TALK ‘N TEXT WILL WIN AGAINST BARANGAY GINEBRA
Talk ‘N Text has had success playing against a crowd that is not on its side. The Tropang Texters beat San Miguel Beer in the semis of last year’s Philippine Cup while dealing with a pro-SMB coliseum. Jimmy Alapag and Macmac Cardona actually enjoyed competing in that setting.
WHY BARANGAY GINEBRA WILL WIN AGAINST TALK ‘N TEXT
If you talk about competing, Caguioa’s and Helterbrand’s competitive drives can will their team to victory.
WHY TALK ‘N TEXT WILL WIN AGAINST BARANGAY GINEBRA
Alapag and Cardona are just as competitive AND are actually healthy.
WHY BARANGAY GINEBRA WILL WIN AGAINST TALK ‘N TEXT
They may be healthy but they’ve never been able to deal with Barangay Ginebra’s pick and roll.
WHY TALK ‘N TEXT WILL WIN AGAINST BARANGAY GINEBRA
Sure, they’ve had trouble in defending that play but neither Caguioa nor Helterbrand have proven they can stop Alapag and Cardona.
WHY BARANGAY GINEBRA WILL WIN AGAINST TALK ‘N TEXT
True but Caguioa doesn’t have to guard Cardona anyway. The Kings have Ronald Tubid and he is the biggest pest in the entire league.
WHY TALK ‘N TEXT WILL WIN AGAINST BARANGAY GINEBRA
Yes, but Talk ‘N Text has Ali Peek. I’m sure Tubid wouldn’t want to upset Peek!
WHY BARANGAY GINEBRA WILL WIN AGAINST TALK ‘N TEXT
It is a given that the guards of TNT may be more accomplished scorers (right now) but Barangay Ginebra’s guards play better on both ends of the court.
WHY TALK ‘N TEXT WILL WIN AGAINST BARANGAY GINEBRA
Yes, Barangay Ginebra does have better two-way guards but Talk ‘N Text has big men that can play both sides of the ball better than Barangay Ginebra’s bigs.
WHY BARANGAY GINEBRA WILL WIN AGAINST TALK ‘N TEXT
True, but Barangay Ginebra also has Eric Menk and he could just find his game once again and play a superb series.
WHY TALK ‘N TEXT WILL WIN AGAINST BARANGAY GINEBRA
Okay, if we are talking of could’ve and would’ve, what if Ranidel de Ocampo also finds the game Talk ‘N Text was hoping to harness from him when it traded for him.
WHY BARANGAY GINEBRA WILL WIN AGAINST TALK ‘N TEXT
Since we are in the what-if’s…what if Rico Villanueva becomes a dominant post-up player in the series too while hitting 90% of his free throws.
WHY TALK ‘N TEXT WILL WIN AGAINST BARANGAY GINEBRA
Highly unlikely! But since we’re starting to run our imagination, What if head coach Chot Reyes abandons his colorful attire and actually wears a plain white shirt, confusing the Barangay Ginebra players.
WHY BARANGAY GINEBRA WILL WIN AGAINST TALK ‘N TEXT
That’s easy…head coach Jong Uichico will untuck his shirt as a response, puzzling the Talk ‘N Text players with his new look!
WHY I CAN’T CHOOSE BETWEEN THE TWO
The thought of coach Jong with an untucked shirt and coach Chot with a plain shirt is too weird for me to continue on.